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Acknowledgments
6
Introduction
8
Contents
12
List of Tables
16
1 Are Koreans Ideological Victims?
17
1.1 The Division and Loss of Indigenous Identity
17
1.2 Kim Il-Sungs Miscalculation and the Subsequent Years
19
1.3 Brief Retrospect of the North Juche ( Self-Reliant ) Hermit Kingdom
21
1.4 Different Roads
23
1.5 Mass Starvation Under Plenary Power Elites
25
1.6 For Whom the Mourning Bell Tolls?
25
1.7 The Shelter for Fearful Leaders
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1.8 Who Will Likely Take Over After Kim Jong-Il?
27
2 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: The Need forINTtie;Reciprocity. Does Lopsided Cooperation Soothe theINTtie;North's Bluffing Mentality?
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2.1 The Definition: Economic Cooperation Versus Bilateral Trade
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2.2 The Historical Outline of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation
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2.3 The Status of the Inter-Korean Trade
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2.4 Comparison of the Inter-Korean Trade with the North KoreaChina Trade
38
2.5 The Determinants of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation
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2.5.1 The Brief Outline
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2.5.2 Trade, Investment, and Economic Assistance
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2.6 The Effects of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation
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2.6.1 The Impacts on the South Korean Economy
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2.6.2 The Impact on the North Korean Economy
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2.7 New Policy Paradigm Under Lee Myung-Baks Leadership?
48
2.8 Closing Remarks on Reciprocity Principle
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3 The Strain Policy Versus the Sunshine Policy: A Road toINTtie;Korean Unification
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3.1 Introduction
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3.2 How Long Will the Red Flag Fly with the Souths Subsidy?
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3.3 What About the Sunshine Policy?
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3.4 What Exacerbates Internal Tensions?
62
3.5 Conclusion: Shorten the Regime on the Brink
66
4 What if a Big Bang Occurs on the Korean Peninsula?
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4.1 Introduction: What if North Korea Falls?
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4.2 Historical Evolutions of the NorthSouth Korean Relations
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4.3 The Spillover Effects of Perestroika and Glasnost
76
4.3.1 Gorbachev Phenomenon and Communist Bloc Change
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4.3.2 Why Does North Korea Refuse Fundamental Change?
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4.4 Can Kim Jong-Ils Regime Last Much Longer?
87
4.4.1 Some Scenarios on North Korean Regime Collapse
92
4.5 What Will Neighboring Nations Do if North Korea Falls?
94
4.5.1 ''Big Bang and the After'' Scenario: Dynamite-Implosion Model
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4.5.2 Chinese Perceptions of the Korean Peninsula
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4.5.3 Chinese Response to the North's Collapse Due to Implosion
98
4.5.4 China and North Korea at the Crossroad
99
4.5.5 US Policy and the Korean Peninsula
101
4.5.6 Japan and the Korean Peninsula
106
4.5.7 Russia and the Korean Peninsula
109
4.6 How Should Koreans Cope with a Big Bang?
111
4.7 Appendix
112
5 New World Environment Surrounding Korea
115
5.1 Introduction: Misty and Rugged Road to Korean Reunification
115
5.2 The DPRK and Obama Administration
119
5.3 Will Kim Jong-Ils End Differ from Ceausescus?
122
5.4 Will Korean Unification Be Welcome?
124
5.5 Leadership Role in German Unification Has a Lesson for Korea
130
5.6 Timely Conditions for a Paradigm Shift
132
6 The Political Economy of Reunification Betweenthe Two Koreas
137
6.1 Introduction
137
6.2 A Brief Comparison of Economic Performance Between the Two Koreas
139
6.3 The Economics of Guns and Bread
147
6.4 The Economics of the Norths Nuclear and Missile Tests
152
6.5 The Political Economy of Korean Unification
155
7 Policy Priorities for the Unified Korea
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7.1 Introduction
163
7.2 Contingency Tasks for a Post-Kim Jong-Il Era
167
7.3 Approach for Economic Integration
170
7.3.1 Economic and Monetary Integration for the Unified Korea
171
7.3.2 Economic Restructuring and Privatization
178
7.4 Appendix
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(A) National Reunification and ''Conclusion of Agreements on Traffic, Correspondence and Trade''
180
(B) The July 7th Declaration entitled ''Special Declaration for Korean Self-Existence and Prosperous Unification''
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8 International Politics and a Search for Unified Korea
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8.1 Introduction
186
8.2 Four Gangs Tug-of-War Politics and the Korean Peninsula
188
8.3 What Is the Unification Formula: Option for Colorless State?
198
8.4 Concluding Remarks
203
Appendix
205
Bibliography
207
Index
211
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