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The Search for a Unified Korea - Political and Economic Implications

of: Eui-Gak Hwang

Springer-Verlag, 2010

ISBN: 9781441915627 , 205 Pages

Format: PDF, Read online

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The Search for a Unified Korea - Political and Economic Implications


 

Acknowledgments

6

Introduction

8

Contents

12

List of Tables

16

1 Are Koreans Ideological Victims?

17

1.1 The Division and Loss of Indigenous Identity

17

1.2 Kim Il-Sungs Miscalculation and the Subsequent Years

19

1.3 Brief Retrospect of the North Juche ( Self-Reliant ) Hermit Kingdom

21

1.4 Different Roads

23

1.5 Mass Starvation Under Plenary Power Elites

25

1.6 For Whom the Mourning Bell Tolls?

25

1.7 The Shelter for Fearful Leaders

26

1.8 Who Will Likely Take Over After Kim Jong-Il?

27

2 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: The Need forINTtie;Reciprocity. Does Lopsided Cooperation Soothe theINTtie;North's Bluffing Mentality?

29

2.1 The Definition: Economic Cooperation Versus Bilateral Trade

29

2.2 The Historical Outline of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

32

2.3 The Status of the Inter-Korean Trade

33

2.4 Comparison of the Inter-Korean Trade with the North KoreaChina Trade

38

2.5 The Determinants of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

40

2.5.1 The Brief Outline

40

2.5.2 Trade, Investment, and Economic Assistance

40

2.6 The Effects of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

42

2.6.1 The Impacts on the South Korean Economy

42

2.6.2 The Impact on the North Korean Economy

46

2.7 New Policy Paradigm Under Lee Myung-Baks Leadership?

48

2.8 Closing Remarks on Reciprocity Principle

49

3 The Strain Policy Versus the Sunshine Policy: A Road toINTtie;Korean Unification

53

3.1 Introduction

53

3.2 How Long Will the Red Flag Fly with the Souths Subsidy?

56

3.3 What About the Sunshine Policy?

59

3.4 What Exacerbates Internal Tensions?

62

3.5 Conclusion: Shorten the Regime on the Brink

66

4 What if a Big Bang Occurs on the Korean Peninsula?

72

4.1 Introduction: What if North Korea Falls?

72

4.2 Historical Evolutions of the NorthSouth Korean Relations

74

4.3 The Spillover Effects of Perestroika and Glasnost

76

4.3.1 Gorbachev Phenomenon and Communist Bloc Change

78

4.3.2 Why Does North Korea Refuse Fundamental Change?

80

4.4 Can Kim Jong-Ils Regime Last Much Longer?

87

4.4.1 Some Scenarios on North Korean Regime Collapse

92

4.5 What Will Neighboring Nations Do if North Korea Falls?

94

4.5.1 ''Big Bang and the After'' Scenario: Dynamite-Implosion Model

96

4.5.2 Chinese Perceptions of the Korean Peninsula

97

4.5.3 Chinese Response to the North's Collapse Due to Implosion

98

4.5.4 China and North Korea at the Crossroad

99

4.5.5 US Policy and the Korean Peninsula

101

4.5.6 Japan and the Korean Peninsula

106

4.5.7 Russia and the Korean Peninsula

109

4.6 How Should Koreans Cope with a Big Bang?

111

4.7 Appendix

112

5 New World Environment Surrounding Korea

115

5.1 Introduction: Misty and Rugged Road to Korean Reunification

115

5.2 The DPRK and Obama Administration

119

5.3 Will Kim Jong-Ils End Differ from Ceausescus?

122

5.4 Will Korean Unification Be Welcome?

124

5.5 Leadership Role in German Unification Has a Lesson for Korea

130

5.6 Timely Conditions for a Paradigm Shift

132

6 The Political Economy of Reunification Betweenthe Two Koreas

137

6.1 Introduction

137

6.2 A Brief Comparison of Economic Performance Between the Two Koreas

139

6.3 The Economics of Guns and Bread

147

6.4 The Economics of the Norths Nuclear and Missile Tests

152

6.5 The Political Economy of Korean Unification

155

7 Policy Priorities for the Unified Korea

163

7.1 Introduction

163

7.2 Contingency Tasks for a Post-Kim Jong-Il Era

167

7.3 Approach for Economic Integration

170

7.3.1 Economic and Monetary Integration for the Unified Korea

171

7.3.2 Economic Restructuring and Privatization

178

7.4 Appendix

180

(A) National Reunification and ''Conclusion of Agreements on Traffic, Correspondence and Trade''

180

(B) The July 7th Declaration entitled ''Special Declaration for Korean Self-Existence and Prosperous Unification''

183

8 International Politics and a Search for Unified Korea

186

8.1 Introduction

186

8.2 Four Gangs Tug-of-War Politics and the Korean Peninsula

188

8.3 What Is the Unification Formula: Option for Colorless State?

198

8.4 Concluding Remarks

203

Appendix

205

Bibliography

207

Index

211