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Preface
5
Contents
7
Part 1 The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
10
1 Introduction
11
1.1 Political Role of the Federal Reserve
12
1.2 Legislative Guidance
15
1.3 Economic Guidance
17
1.4 The Preparations for and Conduct of Open-Market Committee Meetings
18
1.5 Initial Conditions
19
2 Marriner S. Eccles and Thomas B. McCabe: 1945 – 1951
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3 William McChesney Martin, Jr. 1951–1970
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3.1 Monetary Policy 1951:2–1960:4
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3.2 Monetary Policy 1961:1–1970:1
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4 Arthur F. Burns and G. William Miller: 1970 – 1979
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5 Paul A. Volcker: 1979–1987
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6 Alan Greenspan: 1987–2006
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6.1 Monetary Policy 1987:3–1995:2
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6.2 Monetary Policy 1995:3–2005:4
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7 Benjamin S. Bernanke 2006–
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8 Overview and Summary of Part 1
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8.1 Indicators and Instruments
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8.2 What Has Changed That Allows Control of Real Interest Rates to Influence GDP and Inflation in the 21st Century?
124
8.3 What Considerations Are Likely to Impede the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy?
126
8.4 What Guidelines for the Federal Reserve Emerge from This History?
132
Part 2 Recovery, Growth, and Adaptation in U.S. Banking
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9 Introduction: The First Twenty-Five Years
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9.1 Realizing the Boons: 1945–1960
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9.2 A Decade of Regulatory Disintegration: 1961–1970
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10 Resolution: 1971–2007
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10.1 Innovations, Turbulence, and Restructuring: 1971 – 1983
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10.2 Further Waffling and Finally Absorbing the Losses: 1984 – 1994
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10.3 The Aftermath: 1995–2007
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11 Overview and Summary of Part 2
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11.1 Comparing the 1920s and the 1990s
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11.2 Evaluating the Changing Returns and Risk Exposures of Clients of Banks
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11.3 An Interpretation of Recent History
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11.4 The Changing Nature of Banks
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Postscript
197
Monetary Policy
197
Financial Innovation and Regulation
200
References
203
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